In the last decade, avocado has been standing out in the fruit sector. The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) projects that avocado will become one of the most commercialized fruits by 2030, with global exports exceeding four million tons, surpassing mango and pineapple external sales, and second only to bananas.
According to Faostat (2021), global avocado production was one of the fastest-growing in the fruit sector. Over the last five years, the growth rate was 47%, with production increasing from six million tons to nine million tons.
In Brazil, production increased from 197,000 tons in 2016 to 301,000 tons in 2021, a 53% increase, according to IBGE (2021). When looking at the planted area, avocado was the fruit that grew the most from 2016 to 2021, with an increase of 67%.
According to a report from the CBI (Center for the Promotion of Imports from developing countries), the demand for avocados is higher than the supply for most of the year, with small periods of excess availability recently recorded.
The fruit is expected to become more traditional in European retail, which may slow down the consumption growth speed until possible stabilization. The European per capita demand increased by 17% from 2019/20 to 2020/21, reaching 1.4 kg/year, according to the Fruit Trop magazine. In the United States, per capita consumption reaches almost 4 kg/year, and in Canada, 3 kg/year. Mexicans consume between 6.5 and 7 kg/year.
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 report from the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and FAO shows that avocado is expected to become the second most commercialized tropical fruit by 2030, after bananas, surpassing pineapple and mango. Between 2010 and 2030, global production of the fruit is expected to triple, driven by advances in Peru, Colombia, and Kenya.
According to the Brazilian Avocado Producers Association, more than 500 varieties are known worldwide, and Embrapa classifies them into two main groups: tropical climate (common in lower zones – native Brazilian varieties) and subtropical climate (better adapted to altitudes above 1,500 meters, such as Mexican and Guatemalan – the case of the Hass variety).
In Brazil, although there are no official estimates, Abacates do Brasil believes that just over 11,000 hectares correspond to tropical and almost 7,000 hectares to Hass.
Nevertheless, other varieties are cultivated in the country, with the main ones being Hass, Breda, Fortuna, Geada, Margarida, Ouro Verde, and Quintal, allowing the country to produce the fruit all year round, with the off-season of one variety being complemented by the beginning of another.
Data published by the OECD/FAO indicate that global avocado exports should exceed four million tons in 2030, compared to 3.1 million tons in 2021. The United States and the European Union are expected to remain the main importers, responsible for 40% and 31% of global purchases, respectively, in 2030.
Imports are also rapidly increasing in other countries, such as China and some in the Middle East, showing a decentralization of markets. Much of the production is expected to remain in Latin America and the Caribbean, given favorable planting conditions.
SOURCE: HORTIFRUTI BRASIL
